Tuesday, September 26, 2017

BEHAVIOUR MODIFICATION (OB Mod )




As the environment is dynamic, so is the behaviour. Behaviour of every people keeps changing. Different situations leads to different kind of behaviour. Same people shows different kind of behaviour in individual, different in group and different in organization.

As per Kurt Levin, Behaviour is the function of person and environment around him.

Mathematically, B = f (P, E)

Here,


P (Person) consists of two factors:

  • Biographical Factors (like : age, sex, education, abilities, marital status ) 
  • Psychological Factors (like: personality, perception, attitudes, values and learning) 

Similarly,

E (environment) consists of Political, economic, Social, Cultural, Technological and Legal factors.

Since, both variables (person as well as environment) are dynamic so, any behavior is not permanent.

The theory of organizational behavior modification was basically derived from B.F. Skinner (American psychologist) Operant Conditioning Model. As per this theory, human behavior is the function of its consequences. In simple words, people learns to behave on the basis of the reinforcements (rewards) and punishments.

According to Moorhead and Griffin :
“Organizational behavior modification or OB Mod. Is the application of reinforcement theory to people in organizational settings. ”

According to S.P.Robbins :
“OB Mod. Is the application of reinforcement concepts to individuals in the work setting.”
Here, reinforcement means anything that the learner finds rewarding, increasing the intensity of response - that helps the behavior to repeat.

As per Moorhead and Griffin, the organizational Behavior modification consists of following steps:

1. Identify performance related behavioural events:

Under this step, managers needs to identify three kinds of activity. They are:

  • Behavioural events 
  • Performance and 
  • Organizational consequences. 

2. Measure : baseline the frequency of response :

Under this step, the baseline of frequency of response is found . It can be found by finding the frequency of identified behaviour under present conditions

3. Identify existing behavioural contingencies through functional analysis :

Under this step, behavioural contingencies are identified through A-B-C model of behaviour modification.

Here,

  • A stands for Antecedent (what happens before the behaviour?)
  • B, stands for Behaviour (what the person says or does?)
  • C, stands for Consequences (what happens after the behaviour?)

4. Develop intervention strategy:

Under this step, intervention strategy is used to make the desirable behaviour either strong or weak through proper reinforcement and punishment strategy. Here, environment variables are considered like:

  • Structure, 
  • Technology 
  • Task, 
  • Process and 
  • Groups 

5. Apply appropriate strategy:

Under this step, high level performances are made more rewarding through appropriate reinforcement principles:

  • Positive reinforcement 
  • Negative reinforcement 
  • Extinction 
  • Punishment or 
  • Combination 

6. Measure chart frequency of response after intervention:

Under this step, Modeling and Shaping are made. If the problem is solved then next step is initiated otherwise the steps are repeated again from step number 4.

7. Maintain desirable behaviour :

Under this step, schedules of reinforcements are developed. They may be :
  • Continuous, 
  • Intermittent, 
  • Self-reinforcement etc. 

8. Evaluate for performance improvements :

This is the final step. Under this step, evaluation is done to make sure that- whether the intervention strategy that was applied earlier has actually made the performance improvement or not.

Therefore, behaviour modification is the application of behaviorist’s operant conditioning principle to individuals in the organization setting.

The application of it in respect to organization are :

a. Improving the productivity of employee: 

High level performances are made more rewarding through appropriate reinforcement principles that ultimately improves the productivity of the employees.

b. Reducing absenteeism: 

The appropriate reinforcement and punishment strategy makes employee motivated toward the job.

c. Improving the discipline of employee: 

The intervention strategy is used to improve desirable behaviour and weaken undesirable behaviour. This helps to improve the discipline of the employees.

d. Minimizing the faults:

As the employees’ performance is improvised, faults are automatically minimized

e. Developing training programs:

Training programs could be given to the required employees for improvement of performance of the employees after knowing the evaluated performance improvement.

It is to be understood that, change of behaviour is influenced by stimulus and response.

It takes:

  • Internal stimuli (like : personal characteristics, personality, emotions, values, beliefs, attitudes, ability ) and external stimuli (like: hearing, seeing, smelling, touching and tasting) as an inputs, 
  • Processes -physiological (biological factors), cognitive (perception and thinking ) and psychological processes (learning and motivation) and 
  • produces Output as - productivity, absenteeism, turnover, job satisfaction
  • .  Finally, Feedback is received. The type of feedback determines the nature of stimulus and response. 

Behaviour of an individual is a continuous change process. Once the behaviour is understood, behaviour modification could be easily done. Behaviour modification helps us to understand the behaviour of human and helps to improvise the organizational performances.















­­­­­

Friday, August 4, 2017

Psychological Capital




The term 'Psychological Capital' also means 'Positive Psychology'. Its is commonly known as 'PsyCap'.

First of all this concept was introduced in 1990's through the research conducted by Prof. Martin Seligman in the field of organizational behavior. However, this concept was explored by Luthans and his colleagues in 2004 in the USA.


Every business need human and non-human resources in order to establish the business. Human resources can be skilled, semi-skilled as well as unskilled. Similarly, non-human resources consists of land, capital, finance, machines, furniture and so on. Even to operate the non-human resources, we require human resource. Therefore human resource is the key resource of any organization.

An organization’s success depends upon the psychological and physical participation of humans resources (workers, employees, managers, and so on). Physical participation can be seen but psychological participation can only be felt. Human beings are not machines. They have emotions and feelings. Their behavior affects the organizations and vice versa. Therefore, human resource must be dealt very sensitively.

You can easily observe that, 

the behavior of human beings are different in individuals and different in groups. 

This is due to their psychological ingredients.The psychological participation of human resource makes a heavy impact upon the performance of individual and group behavior.
The concept of positive psychological capital has been originated in “postmodern positive psychology”. It includes the strengths and positive aspect of human behavior. Psychological capital (“PsyCap”) focuses on “who you are becoming” rather than “who you are”.


You may be eager to know that........Why it is named as Psychological Capital ?


It is known as Psychological capital because it emphasizes personal psychological sources with their basic four components i.e self-efficacy, hope, optimism and resiliency.
In simple words, Psychological Capital is the process of examining the psychological capacity of human resources. It processes :
  • Positive attitudes 
  • Feedback and 
  • Criticisms 
- of an individual, group or corporation.

There is a direct relationship between Psychological Capital and Positive Organizational Behavior. This means, higher the Psychological Capital, higher will be the 'Positive Organizational Behavior'.

The four fundamental characteristics or key factors that forms the structure of Psychological Capital are :
  • Self-efficacy 
  • Hope 
  • Optimism and 
  • Resiliency 
Positive characteristics of a person or groups will help to maintain and improve - a sustainable positive psychological capital, in the workplace and general life. It simply brings positive experiences and relationships. A positive experience explores the activities of one’s personal capacity, realize their full potential and achieve high performance levels.

PSYCHOLOGICAL CAPITAL AND POSITIVE PSYCHOLOGICAL CAPITAL


The terms 'psychological capital' and 'positive psychological capital' are used synonomously by various authors and sources .

Psychological capital or positive psychological capital emphasize positive approaches, meanings and results - both in personal and organizational levels.. 

It is described as “a common underlying capacity considered critical to human motivation, cognitive processing, striving for success, and resulting performance in the workplace” .

Hughes has argued that, 
Psychological Capital can be “measured, developed, and effectively managed” for improving the work performance.

The focal point of psychological capital is the positive side of human life, defined as hope, creativity, courage, wisdom, responsibility, and so on. The relationships between psychological emotions of employees, their performance and efficiency are hypostatized.

BASIC COMPONENTS OF PSYCHOLOGICAL CAPITAL


These four components shows a “motivational propensity” to accomplish the organizational goal. The following are the four components which contribute to positive psychological capital:

a) Self-efficacy/Confidence :

In simple words, Efficacy is a perception or belief regarding your personal abilities. Self-efficacy is the general belief of people while they performs and makes a sense beyond the actual abilities . High self-efficacy can influence the motivation in both positive and negative sides.

People who are self-confident knows how to improve their motivation. They choose challenging tasks to extend their performance and motivate themselves against the obstacles faced.

According to Albert Bandura, self-efficacy affects learning in following three ways:
  • Self-efficacy influences the activities and gaps - that individuals choose for themselves. 
  • Self-efficacy influences the effort that individuals puts on the job. 
  • Self-efficacy affects the determination to solve complex task. 
The Research made by Stajkovic, underlined that there is a strong and positive relationship between self-efficacy and performance. Moreover, because of the positive and significant relationship between job satisfaction and performance; it can be easily found that there is also a positive relationship between self-efficacy and job satisfaction.

b ) Hope :

Hope is related to the attitude of mind. It plays a directive role in work performance. It is an energy-focused on the personal goals that directs people to its target. Hope is a tool that motivates people while doing their job requirements.

Hope includes 'The will power (agency )' and 'The way power (alternatives)'.

Achieving the desired goals require the sense of expectations which provide “internalized determination and willpower to invest the energy” to the people. Workers take an example by the leaders in general. Thus, leaders’ hope impacts the employees’ job satisfaction, performance, and motivation.

It is possible to confuse hope with optimism. Hope is the seed of Optimism. Hope supports the desires of positive outcomes. It gives the feeling of being good to make the dreams come true in human life.

Higher the hope, higher is the motivation, higher job satisfaction and higher is the performance of human resource.

c ) Optimism :

Optimism is a positive expectation. It is less related or connected to an individual’s actual ability. It is a psychological intention and expectation - to hope the best possible and positive outcome. It can positively influence peoples’ mental and physical health. This gives individuals a rid of stressfull life.

Optimism must be 'Realistic Optimism' that are attainable and not the 'False (unrealistic) Optimism'.

Researches by Hmieleski, demonstrated that optimism and personal well-being have a positive relationship in psychological capital. It has been supported by Luthans , that optimists have high level of job satisfaction.

d ) Resiliency:

To understand the concept of resiliency in a simple way, let me give you an example :

Say,

Mr X is a student pursuing his Chartered Accountancy course. He has constantly failed for 7 years. If he still faces the exams, then he is said to be highly resilient.

Resiliency is defined as the tendency to recover from adversity or depressing process. It allows people be optimistic in any situations. It is an ability for bouncing back. It is coping skills of people in case of uncertainty, negative situations, and obstacles. It contains all other components ( hope, self-efficacy, and optimism ) in itself. It is a complex process for the people. It includes:
  • Endurance (that is - the power to standby in hardships or stress ) 
  • Tolerance 
  • Reactions
  • Flexibility and 
  • Psychological pressures . 

POSITIVE PSYCHOLOGICAL CAPITAL MANAGEMENT


Positive Psychological Capital can be managed through developing all the components (self-efficacy, hope, optimism and resiliency ) of Psychological Capital.
Well-managed positive psychological capital will help to establish the criteria for long-term business success and gain the competitive advantages. For this sense, organizations should focus on the positive behaviors of employees .
Psychological capital provides people an opportunity for training and improving themselves. 

Developing workers’ self efficacy provides a deep knowledge experiences.By, targeting individual’s hope toward which people can conduct their manner and gain a control. 

If optimism is developed and popularized among people then- they will learn to derive lessons from their mistakes or success.

Practically, resiliency should be taken as a “lifelong developmental journey”. 

Positive psychological capital focuses on the positive sides and properties. It improves personal and interpersonal communications and relationships. It is necessary to adapt psychological capital management and development - for gaining competitive advantages. This will decrease any negative impacts incurred in an organization.

Therefore, psychological capital represents much more meaning than the sum of all of the mentioned components such as; hope, resiliency, self-efficacy, optimism, different life situations, stress, motivation, feelings, pressures, orientation, difficulties, risks, positive and negative sides and so on. The concept of synergistic effect works here. when any one component is influenced, it is most probably that the others will also be eventually influenced.

As per the modern concept of management, human resources are treated as an asset of an organization. So, the managers are suggested to invest upon psychological capitals of their human resource.













Some important links:




Tuesday, August 1, 2017

CASE STUDY FOR DEMAND FORECASTING


# The research department of the Mohan Corn Flakes Corporation (MCFC) estimated the following regression for the demand of the corn flakes it sells:


Qx = 1.0 – 2.0 Px + 1.5 I + 0.8 Py – 3.0PM + 1.0A


Where,

Qx = Sales of MCFC corn flakes, in millions of 10-ounce boxes per year
Px = The price of MCFC corn flakes, in dollars per 10-ounce box
I = Personal disposable income, in trillions of dollars per year
Py =price of competitive brand of cornflakes, in dollars per 10-ounce box
PM = price of milk, in dollars per quart
A = Advertising expenditures of MCFC cornflakes, in hundreds of thousands of dollar per year

This year, Px = $ 2    I = $4    Py = $ 2.50   PM = $ 1 and A = $2

a ) Calculate the sales of MCFC cornflakes this year.

b ) Calculate the elasticity of sales with respect to each variables in the demand function.

c ) Estimate the level of sales next year if MCFC reduces Px by 10 percent, increases advertising by 20 percent, I rise by 5 percent, Py is reduced by 10 percent and PM remains unchanged.

d) By how much should MCFC change its advertising if it wants its sales to be 30 percent higher than this year?



a ) Calculation of the sales of MCFC cornflakes this year:


We have been given the following estimated equation for sales:

Qx = 1.0 – 2.0 Px + 1.5 I + 0.8 Py – 3.0PM + 1.0A

Where,
  • Qx = Sales of MCFC corn flakes, in millions of 10-ounce boxes per year
  • Px = The price of MCFC corn flakes, in dollars per 10-ounce box
  • I = Personal disposable income, in trillions of dollars per year
  • Py =price of competitive brand of cornflakes, in dollars per 10-ounce box
  • PM = price of milk, in dollars per quart
  • A = Advertising expenditures of MCFC cornflakes, in hundreds of thousands of dollar per year

Substituting the given values in the above equation as:

  • Px = $ 2  
  • I = $4   
  • Py = $ 2.50   
  • PM = $ 1 and 
  • A = $2 

We get,


Qx = 1.0 – 2.0 x 2 + 1.5 x 4 + 0.82 X 2.50 – 3.0 x 1 + 1.0 x 2 = 4

Thus, the MCFC would sell 4 million boxes of its corn flakes this year.

b ) Computation of the elasticity of sales with respect to each variables in the demand function:


To solve this, follow the following steps :
  • First calculate the first order derivative of following equation Q= 1.0 – 2.0 Px + 1.5 I + 0.8 Py – 3.0P+ 1.0A  with respect to particular elasticity . For example, If price elasticity (E) is to be found than find out the first order derivative with respect to Px  by treating other variables as constant. 
  • Then, compute elasticity accordingly.

The elasticity of demand for MCFC corn flakes with respect to its price, personal disposal income, the price of competitive corn flakes, the price of milk and advertising are:

Ep = (dqx /dpx) x (px / qx ) =  - 2 x (2 / 4) = -1 

EI = (dqx /dI) x (I / qx ) = 1.5 x (4 /4) = 1.5

EXY = (dqx /dpy) x (py / qx ) = 0.8 x (2.5 / 4 ) = 0.5

EXM = (dqx /dpM) x (pM / qx ) = - 3.0 x (1 / 4) = - 0.75

EA = (dqx /dA) x (A / qx ) = 1.0 x (2 / 4 ) = 0.5 


c ) Estimation of the level of sales next year if MCFC reduces Px by 10 percent, increases advertising by 20 percent, I rise by 5 percent, Py is reduced by 10 percent and PM remains unchanged:


If next year the MCFC reduces Px by 10 percent, increases advertising by 20 percent, I rise by 5 percent, Py is reduced by 10 percent and PM remains unchanged then,

the sales of MCFC corn flakes in the next year ( Qx I ) would be :

Qx I = QX + QX (∆ PX / PX ) X Ep  + QX (∆ I / I) X EI + QX (∆ PY / PY ) X EXY + QX (∆ PM / PM ) X EXM  + QX (∆ A / A ) X EA     

=  4 + 4 (-10% ) X (-1) + 4 (5%) X 1.5 + 4 (-10 %) X 0.5 + 4 ( 0 % ) X (– 0.75)  + 4 (20%) X 0.5

On solving this we get,

Qx I = 4.9

Therefore, the MCFC would sell 4.9 million boxes of its corn flakes in next year.


d ) Computation of changes in advertising that MCFC should change if it wants its sales to be 30 percent higher than this year:


To know that - by how much should MCFC change its advertising if it wants its sales to be 30 percent higher than this year, It must sell 5.2 ( i.e  4 + 30 % x 4 ) million  boxes of corn flakes. This is 0.3 (i. e 5.2 - 4.9 ) million greater than forecast. 

To determine the additional increase in advertisement expenditure, we set up following equation:

Qx X (Z) X ( EA)  =  0.3

where, 
  • Q= 4 
  • Z = Additional percentage increase in advertising
  • E= Elasticity of Advertisement

So, we get 

4 X ( Z) x (0.5) = 0.3 

or, Z x 2 = 0.3

or, Z = 0.15


The additional percentage increase in advertising is Z i.e 0.15

Therefore, 0.15 percent additional increase in advertisement expenditures over this year’s level of $ 200,000 is $ 30,000 ( i.e  $ 200,000 x 0.15 % ).









Note : 
  • The above case study was asked to the MBS post graduates by Faculty of Management, Tribhuvan University.
  • The problem is taken out from the book (Managerial Economics ) written by Dominick Salvatore.










Sunday, July 30, 2017

Situational Correspondence Writing - ATM Complaint Letter





# You went to withdraw cash from the ATM of Standard Chartered Bank. When you inserted your debit card, the money was not dispensed. However, your total balance was deducted. So, write a complaint letter to your bank for refund of the money.




Date : 31 April, 2017




Robert Willinson
Branch Manager
Pulchock Branch, Standard Chartered Bank
Pulchock, Kathmandu, Nepal


Sub : Amount debited by the bank but money was not dispensed

Dear Sir,

     My debit card (number 001569765223 ) had been inserted into the ATM machine of your pulchock branch at 5.19 PM in normal manner. The withdrawal of rupees fifteen thousand was requested but the money was not dispensed by the machine. However, the amount was deducted from my account number 15223676900067. The transaction ID number is 0143. Can you credit my account by 15 May, 2017 ?

     I told my problem to the on-duty security staff of the ATM along with my ATM slip. He suggested me to wait for at least 24 hours and even if the matter do not get resolved, then contact the branch manager for the inconvenience.

     In early days, i had encountered similar problem but the matter was resolved within 24 hours. My tuition fee is due. So, please credit my account not latter than 15 May, 2017. Let me know, for any further details through mail or telephone. I look forward to hearing you soon.



Sincerely,

....................................

( Niraj Kumar Jha )

Rajbiraj-05, Saptari, Nepal
Account Number : XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Contact Number : 00977-XXXXXXXXX
Email : nirajkumar.rajbiraj[@]gmail.com



Enclosure : ATM Slip




Note :

Letter Writing is an Art. It is developed through constant effort. The correspondence must be simple, precise, clear, to the point, free from ambiguity, formal, subject-focused, and positive.


The commonly accepted correspondence writing includes following three-steps-writing process (Plan - Write - Complete ).


Tips for writing the body of correspondence :
  • In the first paragraph you must be clear of - what are you writing ? why are you writing it ? and draft the correspondence accordingly. 
  • In second paragraph - mention the reason for backup or justification of the first paragraph. 
  • Finally, in last paragraph - Maintain goodwill, Mention why date is important, emphasize the space and invite further communication. 
The number of paragraph may vary, but the relevant subject-matter should not be missed.












Picture Credit : templatelab.com

PRACTICAL APPROACH TO MOVING AVERAGE IN MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS

# Consider the following data for sales of product ‘X’ for the period September 2012 to August 2015 (given as quarter 12)

Quarter
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Sales (‘000 units )
20
22
23
24
18
23
19
17
22
23
18
23

Analyze the three quarterly and five quarterly moving average forecast for the 13th quarter and verify that which forecast is more consistent (or better).




Solution :





In order to solve this problems,

You must first of all know ...........What is moving average ?

Moving average is one of the important analytical tool for forecasting. It is one of the simplest smoothing technique. It is also called ‘Moving Mean’ or ‘Rolling Mean’. 

This is used to smoothen short-time fluctuations. It filters random “white noise” from the data.

The forecast values of a time series in a given period (may be given in month, quarter or year) = Average value of time series in a number of previous periods.

Here, Smoothing Techniques is one of the forecasting method that helps to forecast the value of time series on the basis of some given past values. It is useful when there is little trend or seasonal variations in the time series but with large random variations. The method is used to cancel the effect due to random variation.

Next thing you must know is ..........What is three- period moving average?
It means, the forecast value of time series of next period that is equal to the average value of time series in the previous three periods.

Similarly, What is five-period moving average?

It means,  the forecast value of time series of next period  that is equal to average value of time series in the previous five periods.


Note:
  • The greater the number of periods used in the moving average, the greater is the smoothing effect. Each new observation receives less weight.


Three-quarter and Five-quarter moving average forecast and comparison:

For this, follow the following three simple steps :

Steps :

1. First write the details given in the question in tabular form (i.e. quarter in first column and sales in second and so on as shown below). 

- For three-quarter moving average forecast and comparison :
  • Leave first three column blank.
  • Add first three period sales data and divide it by three [eg. (20 + 22 + 23 ) / 3 = 21.67 (approx..) ]
  • Then write the obtained forecasted values of three quarter in corresponding appropriate coloumn ( Three-quarter MA forecast = F ) in fourth quarter. Here, MA means Moving Average.
  • Continue this process till 12th quarter.
  • Similarly, you will obtain the value of 13th quarter [i.e  (23 +18 +23) / 3 = 21.33 ] .
  • Compute A – F ( i.e Sales (‘000 units ) - Three-quarter MA forecast ). 
  • Compute its square and find the sum of all quarters. Why ? Because the forecast difference or error (A – F ) is squared to penalize larger errors proportionately more than smaller errors.
- For Five-quarter moving average forecast and comparison:
  • Leave first five column blank.
  • Add first five period sales data and divide it by five [eg. (20 + 22 + 23 + 24 +25 + 18 ) / 5 = 21.4 (approx..) ].
  • Then, write the obtained forecasted values of five quarter in corresponding appropriate column ( Five-quarter MA forecast = F ) in sixth quarter. Here, MA means Moving Average.
  • Continue this process till 12th quarter.
  • Similarly, you will obtain the value of 13th quarter [i.e  (17 + 22 +23 +18 + 23) / 5 = 20.6 ] .
  • Compute A – F ( i.e Sales (‘000 units ) - Five-quarter MA forecast ).
  • Compute its square and find the sum of all quarters.
2. Compute  RMSE (Root- mean-square error (RMSE ) 

3. Give the decision on the basis of RMSE

Step. 1. Details in Tabular Form :

Quarter
Sales (‘000 units ) = A
Three-quarter MA forecast = F
A – F
( A – F )2
Five-quarter MA forecast
A - F
( A – F )2
1
20
-
-

-


2
22
-
-

-


3
23
-
-

-


4
24
21.67
2.33
5.4289
-


5
18
23
-5
25
-


6
23
21.67
1.33
1.7689
21.4
1.6
2.56
7
19
21.67
-2.67
7.1289
22
-3
9
8
17
20
-3
9
21.4
-4.4
19.36
9
22
19.67
2.33
5.4289
20.2
1.8
3.24
10
23
19.33
3.67
13.4689
19.8
3.2
10.24
11
18
20.67
-2.67
7.1289
20.8
-2.8
7.84
12
23
21
2
4
19.8
3.2
10.24




∑ (A-F )2= 78.3534


∑ (A-F )2= 62.48
13
-
21.33


20.6


  

Step. 2 Computation of RMSE :

It helps to find out the weighted average error in the forecast.




For Three-quarter moving average:







that is,










For Five-quarter moving average:


 






that is,











3. Decision on the basis of RMSE :

Which of these moving average is better ?

For this we have to ,
  • Compare Root- mean-sqaure error (RMSE ) of each forecast.( i.e Three-quarter moving average with Five-quarter moving average ). 
  • Then, use the moving average that has smallest RMSE.




Here, the RMSE of Three-quarter moving average is less than RMSE of Five-quarter moving average by  0.4 (2.95 < 2.99).

Therefore, the Three-quarter moving average forecast is
  • Marginally better
  • More confident
  • More consistent


- than the Five-quarter moving average forecast.



NOTE :

# The above problem is taken from the question asked in Managerial Economics to their MBS post graduates by Faculty of Management, Tribhuvan University in 2015.